Update: How to Solve Refugee Issue
- Bon Habler
- Mar 17
- 8 min read
Updated: Mar 21
War in Iran, Lebanon and Afghanistan
In the past weeks, the Middle East has been in the intense war phase. Although media reports that US and Israel attack Iran and try to cause the regime change in Iran, I personally think that the structure of the war is different. Just like the past Iran- Israel (?) war in the summer of 2025, it is mainly Trump (CENTCOM) who wants to oust Islamic regime in Iran. In the last summer, "Israel" which cooperated with Trump to attack Iranian national nuclear facility was mainly from the labor party side (anti-Netanyahu). In fact, US does not cooperate to the Israeli military operation in Lebanon which caused 800k displaced persons (refugees) from Lebanon.
If you focus on the dynamics of UNHCR refugees, the current war on Iran, Lebanon and Pakistan- Afghanistan border cause the same phenomena - outflow of UNHCR refugees.
There was a very mysterious sentence in the official website of UNHCR. The English phrase "from.. to --" is used both for the range (e.g. Sahara is spread from Egypt to Morocco.) and origin/ destination (e.g. He moved from Iran to Sudan). But if it is used as the meaning of rage, it is normally from the beginning point to the end point, and each point is only one point. However, this sentence says "mobilizing from Iran and Afghanistan (two points) to Lebanon and Syria (2 points) as if UNHCR staffs moved from Iran/ Afghanistan to Lebanon/ Syria (origin/ destination).
GENEVA – Staff at UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, are mobilizing from Iran and Afghanistan to Lebanon and Syria to support people forced to flee their homes as the regional crisis intensifies.
After I noticed it, the reason why Israel suddenly started the full scale war on Lebanon became clearer. Perhaps, UNHCR moved (or prepared for moving) the 15 million Afghanistan refugees to Lebanon/ Syria area just like in the era of MERRA (Middle East Relief and Refugee Administration - the refugee organization which helped the war criminals during WWII). However, Israel is fighting in Lebanon. So, the UNHCR refugees in Lebanon are moving to Syria. The UNHCR refugees in Lebanon originally came from Syria during the Syrian war in 2010s. And Syria had one of the biggest refugee camps of MERRA.
Revival of NEF/ MERRA Policy?
What UNHCR tries to do is very close to the NEF (Near East Foundation) which helped Armenian/ Assyrian refugees in the WWI, and MERRA which helped the war criminals of WWII including Armenians/ Assyrians/ Japanese Empire/ Habsburg factions, etc. I summarized the history of refugee organization in my past article.
Here is the operation map of NEF (Near East Relief in the map) in 1921. You can find a big operation hub in Istanbul, Armenia, Harpoot (the source of Tigris river) and Adana- Aleppo line (Turkey-Syria border). Seemingly, the deportation line in the Mesopotamia is almost the same as Tigris river (perhaps, such Armenian/ Assyrian, Kurdish refugees conducted the irrigation project of Tigris river). This map (except Istanbul) is somehow similar to the map of modern Kurdish population. Although the Kurdistan map does not include Istanbul, Istanbul has the largest Kurd community in the world with 2-4 million Kurdish population.
After WWII, the refugee business of NEF was taken over by MERRA (The Middle East Relief and Refugee Administration). Here are the maps of major MERRA refugee camps. The refugee camps in Morocco and Algeria were used by Eisenhower to invade Italy (Allied invasion of Italy in September, 1943), after he invaded Morocco via Operation Torch in 1942. MERRA refugee camp in Mohammedia was established in 1943, and closed in November, 1944.
The second one is the zoom of the Middle East area. It is very obvious that Palestine Railways (1920-46) was constructed by the MERRA refugees. Also, Suez Crisis (Suez Canal) was likely to be caused by them.
Response of UNHCR and the Current Kurdish Head
As I stated above, UNHCR moves its focus from Afghanistan/ Iran to "Syria/ Lebanon". This is very similar to what happened in WWI to WWII.
GENEVA – Staff at UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, are mobilizing from Iran and Afghanistan to Lebanon and Syria to support people forced to flee their homes as the regional crisis intensifies
In addition, the current head of UNHCR is a Kurdish Barham Salih (the past Iraqi president in the post-Hussein era). Of course, Salih himself was a UNHCR refugee. Since the fall of Ba'ath party/ Hussein, all Iraqi presidents have been Kurds. In the middle east, Kurds are regarded as US colonists. Kurds are counted as IDPs in Iraq in the UNHCR refugee data. Since US captured Hussein in December 2003, UNHCR has been protected Kurds in a special way, and globalists used them as hidden soldiers. In fact, the population of Kurds in the Greater Kurdistan (Turkey, Iraq, Ira, Syria, etc.) are more than 40 million. So, 15 million Afghanistan refugees can easily assimilate to the community.
The focus of UNHCR (the possible place to move mass refugees including Afghanistan refugees and Palestinians are Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. It is very understandable that Kurdish Salih was appointed as the head of UNHCR in this timing because the target area is almost the same as the Greater Kurdistan (Kurdish majority area). Afghanistan refugees in Iran can exile to Iraq/ Syria via land route. Palestine refugees in Lebanon can move to Syria.
The Location of Future Gulag
Now, we have two possible future. The one is to repeat the establishment of the huge "refugee camps" managed by UNHCR/ Red Cross and anti-communist side. Since the refugees themselves are the mercenaries hired by such anti-communists, they will be reused as soldiers and repeat the terrorism/ invasion to neighbor countries. Of course, most "sane" people want to avoid it. The second possibility is to make huge prisons managed by national army/ military regime/ conservatives in almost the same location. I will consider a strategy to make new Gulag guarded by several countries' army.
The Escape Route of UNHCR Refugees
First of all, we need to check the typical escape routes of UNHCR refugees who stayed in Iran, Pakistan, and Lebanon during the current intensified war. Aside from Syria/ Iraq as stated in the official website of UNHCFR, some news reports that UNHCR refugees (originally Afghanistan refugees) in Iran go to Turkmenistan and Central Asia.
This map is the summary of escape routes of UNHCR refugees from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Lebanon. UNHCR and refugee aid group tries to make a huge refugee camps around Iraq/ Syria (almost the same as the Greater Kurdistan area) and Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and perhaps Kazakhstan/ Kyrgyzstan). So, we can make huge jails around Syria/ Iraq and Central Asia if the management of the refugee camps are led by anti-UNHCR army factions. Also, Chad can be such jail location for refugees from Sudan. Luckily, the east side of Libya is governed by military regime, so, the north Chad border is also blocked by anti-UNHCR group. However, the south border of Chad should be considered more. I also added some possible locations of blockages to close sea escape routes (A, B, .., E) because refugees historically ran away from Gulag especially via sea route (freedom from river to the sea) during their irrigation work to connect river and the sea. **I added Volga / Don (Volga- Don canal was constructed by Gulag fugitives via Hydroproject), Istanbul and Gulf of Aqaba as the possible closure area. (March 20, 2026)
*If Turkey and Libya are not connected by land or can not form a strong naval alliance, refugees may flee to the past Austrian Empire area or Slavic East Europe. I think such escape route was used when Habsburg Empire emerged in East Europe.
In fact, Mediterraneus in Latin means "inland" (as an opposite of maritime) and the area of Mediterranean sea was land until Zanclean Flood 5.33 million years ago. The flood happened in the transition time between Messinian to Zanclean, and it was also a transition from grassland to forest. So, when the land is covered by grass, Mediterranean area is not a sea, but land. In the Messinian era, the map of the Mediterranean area was like these maps due to the Messinian Salinity Crisis. This geography obviously contributed to reduce pirates activity in the area.
Security Walls for Future Gulag in Syria/ Iraq
In the current war in Iran, some attacks against Kuwait was conducted from the realm of Iraq. Although the official politics in Iraq is dominated by Kurds (US CENTCOM's puppet), perhaps, Ba'ath party faction in Iraq (and Syria) is still alive. However, if they were not active, big border changes should be considered to avoid escaped of prisoners (UNHCR refugees) via sea routes. For example, Turkey and Israel may consider expanding their realms to Lebanon/ Syria to establish the great west wall to shutdown the maritime escape route via Mediterranean sea. Also, just like 1967, it is better for Israel to expand its realm to Sinai to block the gulf of Aqaba. Also, Persian/ Arabian Gulf can be another maritime escape route via Indian sea. So, Iran or Saudi needs to annex Kuwait and Mesopotamia Marsh (the Marsh was originally developed by UNHCR refugees. In fact, the Greater Kurdistan covers the source of Tigris/ Euphrates river). It is also better for Turkey/ Iran to annex the current Iraqi Kurdistan area to weaken the unity of Kurdish community.
Joint Operation for Future Gulag
Here is the possible map about joint Gulag management by neighbor countries. The arrows are sending military from each country to the key area.
Gulag in Iraq/ Syria is guarded/ managed by army members sent from Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Since UNHCR/ UNRWA refugees in Lebanon also try to escape via sea route, constant joint operation (by Turkey, Israel and Libya) in the East Mediterranean sea is crucial. If possible, the line C (Turkey - East Libya) should be closed by landfill.
Gulag in Central Asia (similar to the original Soviet Gulag - Kazakhstan/ Kyrgyzstan/ Siberia) is guarded by Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and China. To avoid escape via sea route to Indian sea, Iran and Pakistan may need to conduct continuous joint naval operation in the north Indian sea. Persian/ Arabian Gulf is also better to be closed by landfill in the Iran-Oman (enclave) or Iran-Saudi line (E) to reduce the risk of the cooperation between UNHCR refugees and pirates.
** The closure of Hormuz by Iran already obstructed the UNHCR refugee aid ships which tried to go to Afghanistan, Yemen and Sudan. The origin of such aid might be Kurdistan area (the current UNHCR head is a Kurdish).
Since Egypt (anti-Muslim Brotherhood regime) tries to cooperate with UNHCR to help refugees, just like during WWII (MERRA), the closure of Red Sea by Yemen-Eritrea line (D) is also very important. When the closure of Red Sea by Yemen - Eritrea line (D) comes with the closure of A (Gibraltar), B (Sicily - Tunis) or C (Turkey - East Libya), Suez Crisis will be automatically solved without fighting in Suez. Only one closure among A, B, or C is enough, but the full closure of the three points will strengthen the security.
*Suez Crisis in 1956 was obviously caused by the refugees in MERRA refugee camp (El Shatt or Ayoun Mousa). Israel attacked El Shatt refugee camp during the Six Day War in 1967. Then, Israel expanded its realm to Sinai.
So, the expansion of Israel to Sinai and regime change in Egypt (to the military junta) may come together when the new Gulag emerges.
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